Quick Predictions: U.S. Open

I freaking love the U.S. Open! It’s my favorite golf tournament to watch every year and I’ll be doing a lot of that tomorrow through this weekend.

It’s the one tournament that makes a lousy golfer like me (21 handicap) feel better about my game. Now I have no doubt that I’d probably shoot a 150 at Erin Hills…but it’s fun watching players struggle to make par on most holes…like I do for an average 18 holes.

erin-hills-gc
Shooting 150 on this course might be optimistic for me!

Here are my plays for the weekend:
Win Plays:
Rickie Fowler (19-1)
Branden Grace (50-1)
Thomas Pieters (50-1)
Charl Schwartzel (62-1)
Louis Oosthuizen (68-1)
Bryson DeChambeau (300-1)

To finish Top 5:
Branden Grace (5-1)
Charl Schwartzel (11-1)
Louis Oosthuizen (12-1)

To finish Top 10:
Branden Grace (3.8-1)
Louis Oosthuizen (5-1)

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Oosty’s success at Erin Hills will be key to my bankroll this weekend.

To finish Top 20:
Bryson DeChambeau (9-1)
Jordan Niebrugge (10-1)

Tournament Matchups
Branden Grace over Brooks Koepka
Charl Schwartzel over Matt Kuchar
(Both slight underdogs but near even money)

Round 1 Matchups (3 Balls)
Adam Scott over Sergio Garcia & Bubba Watson (5-3 odds)

My rationale:
From what I read, Erin Hills seems comparable to Chambers Bay in 2015. In that tournament, Oosthuizen finished tied for 2nd, Grace tied for 4th, and Schwartzel in 7th place. I’m going with the South Africans this week!

Fowler is my pick to win as he’s due for a major title…but the +14 he shot in two rounds at Chambers Bay in 2015 is seriously concerning.

Pieters can bomb it…and if he keeps it in the fairway off the tee, watch out!

DeChambeau has some history at Erin Hills and is worth pocket change.

Niebrugge is from Wisconsin and is probably more familiar with the course than anyone outside of Steve Stricker. He finished inside the top 10 in the 2015 British Open so he shouldn’t be intimidated by the pressure of a Major Championship.

STATEAM26, SPT, PORTER, 5
I don’t know much about Niebrugge but I do know that 10-1 chances of a Top 20 at Erin Hills is a tasty bet.

Adam Scott finished T-4 at Chambers Bay in 2015 and should open with a score relative to par which I expect to be much better than Bubba Watson and Sergio Garcia in the trio of MASTERS champions.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Jason Day and Rory McIlroy show well…but tee accuracy should also be key for both.

It should be a fun weekend of golf…enjoy and let’s win some cash!!

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