Only one blog entry scheduled for this crazy Super Bowl and Phoenix Open week…and it’s a detailed one! Here is my official pick for Super Bowl LII and my Phoenix Open predictions…
Super Bowl Pick
Regular Season: 171-85 SU (66.8%), 141-114-1 ATS (55.3%)
Playoffs: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
NEW ENGLAND 30, Philadelphia 23 (ATS: Patriots -4.5)
Why the heck is the spread this low? New England is clearly the better team and has much the best QB and offensive talent in the game? In their last three games outside of Philadelphia, the Eagles surrendered 29, 35, and 24 points to their opponents. What makes you think things will be different this time?
Of course the opportunity for underdog Nick Foles to win the Super Bowl is a great storyline but is it realistic? If not for the game of his life against Minnesota, would you have ever expected this to be a close matchup 3-4 weeks ago? No chance.
For the Eagles to win, they’re going to have to control the ball for 35+ minutes to keep Tom Brady and company off the field. Unfortunately for them, it’s not a realistic scenario. Don’t give me the excuse that Philly is the best defense the Patriots have faced all season! Wrong! Jacksonville was far superior. It’s one thing to hold down Case Keenum at home…it’s another to stop Tom Brady in a neutral site dome stadium.
I expect New England to build a comfortable lead before the Eagles make the game closer in the final quarter. As for my MVP pick, I’m not going with Brady. The only time New England won a Super Bowl yet Brady wasn’t the MVP was Super Bowl XXXIX against Philly. Deion Branch, a New England wide receiver won the award with an 11 catch, 133 yard game. This time I’m going to take the Pats’ Brandin Cooks to win the Super Bowl MVP (22-1 odds) with a projected stat line of 8-147-1.
In what should be a fairly interesting game throughout, I’m confident New England wins their 6th championship in the Brady-Belichick era and cements themselves as the greatest pro football dynasty of all-time!
NFL Regular Season: 46-37-2
Combined Record: 55-42-2
Patriots / Eagles OVER 48.5 Total Points
5 of My Favorite Prop Bets:
-Brandin Cooks OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
I think he’s going to win Super Bowl MVP and obviously that means he would far exceed this total.
-Dion Lewis OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
Lewis has exceeded this total in 8 of his last 10 games. And if the Patriots have a commanding lead as I expect, this should be a cinch, even against a stingy Eagles run defense.
-Either team to win by exactly 3, 7, 10, or 14 points (+170)
I’m getting +170 for the four most common point differentials? Thank you very much for the gift!
-Yardage of all TDs combined: OVER 80.5 (-110)
Based on my projection I see five total TDs in the game and two of them should surpass 30 yards in length. I’ll take my chances with this one.
-Total Eagles FGs: OVER 1.5 (-125)
Jake Elliott has made two or more field goals in 4 of his last 6 games. Considering I expect Philly to stall in the red zone several times, the over seems likely.
It’s the craziest sports week of the year in the Phoenix-area with the Waste Management Phoenix Open in town for its annual week-long party.
Here are five players I’m favoring this week:
Rickie Fowler (+1200): Finished 2nd and 4th here in the last two years. My pick to take the title this week.
Charley Hoffman (+6600): Last week this model I follow picked Alex Noren to post a top-10 and he lost in a playoff to Jason Day at Torrey Pines. This week their sleeper pick is Hoffman. Let’s hope lightning strikes twice.
Webb Simpson (+3300): Lost in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama last year and has finished no lower than 14th in five starts here since 2011.
Jordan Spieth (+900): The co-favorite with defending two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama. If the best golfer in the world (as I see it) is on his game, he should produce birdies galore.
Marc Leishman (+2800): Consistent as can be despite fading last year on the weekend. Very possibly a top-10 candidate at worst.