Cohen’s Corner Week 4 NFL Picks

Looking for the correct Monday Night Football results? Evidently I’ve been pretty good in Cohen’s Corner thus far in 2018! In Weeks 2 and 3, I have given the exact result of the MNF game on this blog: 24-17 Bears over Seahawks and 30-27 Steelers over Bucs. I’ll try not to cough up a lung patting myself on the back but I have to say, it’s fairly impressive! Can I make it three weeks in a row with the exact score on MNF? Based on this week’s surprising prediction, I’d say the odds are stacked against me!

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Week 3 NFL Picks
Last Week: 10-6 Straight Up (SU),  8-8 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 29-17-2 SU, 21-27 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; home teams in caps)

LOS ANGELES RAMS 24, Minnesota 20 (ATS: Vikings +6.5)
You never know what can happen on a short week…but I just don’t see how Minnesota responds traveling halfway across the country on a short week against arguably the NFC’s best team. I’ll gladly take the 6.5 points though as I still think Minnesota very well could turn into the NFC Champion come January.

ATLANTA 28, Cincinnati 20 (ATS: Falcons -5.5)
The Falcons sit at 1-2 when they very well could’ve been 3-0. The emergence of rookie WR Calvin Ridley has been a positive…but outside of that, I’m wondering if coach Dan Quinn’s job might eventually be in limbo. Either way, I’ll predict that Atlanta takes care of business fairly easily this weekend.

JACKSONVILLE 20, New York Jets 9 (ATS: Jaguars -7.5)
The Jaguars FINALLY didn’t cover during an odd week (in Week 3) so there went my theory from last year. The Jets are a mess and Todd Bowles very well could be whacked sooner than later. If Jacksonville doesn’t dispose of the Jets too easily, I’ll start to get concerned about their future.

DALLAS 21, Detroit 17 (ATS: Cowboys -3.5)
I don’t think much of the Lions but the Cowboys’ offense is so one-dimensional that I considered picking the upset. But I’ll predict that Ezekiel Elliott runs wild and leads the Cowboys to a closer than expected home W.

TENNESSEE 24, Philadelphia 23 (ATS: Titans +3.5)
Sorry Eagles fans…or maybe congrats. The Cohen Curse is real…except when it comes to Monday Night Football predictions of course. I expect the Titans, who haven’t played all that well this season to be at their best against the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday and pull off the upset win.

GREEN BAY 30, Buffalo 10 (ATS: Packers -10.5)
Do I really expect the Bills to come alive against both Minnesota and Green Bay, on the road, in consecutive weeks? No chance! Green Bay wins and covers easily!

Houston 24, INDIANAPOLIS 16 (ATS: Texans +1.5)
The Texans are 0-3 and desperate. The Colts have a noodle-armed QB (Andrew Luck) against a once stingy defense. Thinking Houston’s season turnaround starts this week.

NEW ENGLAND 27, Miami 14 (ATS: Patriots -7.5)
Miami is 3-0…New England is 1-2. The world clearly must be upside down. I have a feeling normalcy returns this week as does a reality check for the uber-confident Dolphins.

CHICAGO 23, Tampa Bay 16 (ATS: Bears -2.5)
Here’s a bold prediction…Ryan Fitzpatrick is removed from Sunday’s game midway through in favor of Jameis Winston. That obviously means there won’t be a fourth straight 400+ yard passing game for ‘Fitzmagic’. Chicago’s D is for real and so are the Bears’ playoff chances.

OAKLAND 24, Cleveland 20 (ATS: Raiders -2.5)
I know Oakland is 0-3 and Cleveland is 1-0 with #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield in the lineup. But Jon Gruden’s team isn’t losing this game…simple as that. In what should be an interesting affair, Gruden gets his first Oakland home win since 2001.

Seattle 23, ARIZONA 13 (ATS: Seahawks -2.5)
How can I seriously pick a team who has scored only 20 points in three games on the season? Give me Seattle and Russell Wilson over rookie QB Josh Rosen making his first career start. The Cardinals seem to be staring a 3 win season…or less…in the face right now.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 27, San Francisco 14 (ATS: Chargers -10.5)
No Jimmy G = not a great chance for the 49ers to exceed six wins. And now going on the road to what still might be one of the top teams in the AFC…no thanks. Chargers win easily behind a big game from RB Melvin Gordon.

New Orleans 27, NEW YORK GIANTS 24 (ATS: Giants +3.5)

Don’t be shocked if the Giants pull the home upset here. New Orleans has not looked stout defensively at all this season and while the Giants have plenty of issues on offense, they also have Odell Beckham, Jr. and Saquon Barkley. I’ll predict an OT win for the Saints.

PITTSBURGH 27, Baltimore 24 (ATS: Ravens +3.5)
These teams always play entertaining games. Pittsburgh is dysfunctional and coming off a short week…but I have a hard time thinking they’ll begin their home season 0-2. Once again, Joe Flacco and company come up a field goal short in Steel-town.

DENVER 24, Kansas City 20 (ATS: Broncos +4.5)
Wait…what? I’m picking against the great Patrick Mahomes…who has thrown 13 TDs in the first three games of 2018? Call it a gut feeling but Denver’s defense rises up to stonewall the Chiefs offense for a half…and hangs on in the end. If I get this pick exactly right, I expect some of you to consider me a genius! (I’m kidding…I think).

Week 4 Fantasy Football Guidance

‘Boom & Crush’ Record (15+ PPR fantasy points from a non-must start player)
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 5-4

‘Be Careful’ Record (12 or less PPR fantasy points from a top-15 player)
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 6-3

Boom & Crush:
QB: Eli Manning (NYG vs. NO)
RB: Matt Breida (SF at LAC)
WR/TE: Allen Robinson (CHI vs. TB)

Be Careful:
QB: Andrew Luck (IND vs. HOU)
RB: Alex Collins (BALT at PIT)
WR/TE: Mike Evans (TB at CHI)

For more NFL analysis and thoughts, listen to The Daily Blender, weekdays from 1-3pm on 1580TheFanatic. You can tune in here.

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