Week 4 NFL Picks

Right now, if I took the Patriots or Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIV and gave you the other 30 teams, would you take that bet? Would you be willing to bet against the two most powerful and dominant teams in the AFC…the best player in the league right now (Patrick Mahomes)…and the greatest of all-time (Tom Brady)?

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Sure…Baltimore could give them a run in the AFC…maybe the Chargers if everything broke right but that’s a bit of a stretch. In the NFC, the Cowboys, Packers, and Rams look the strongest thus far but I wouldn’t necessarily count out the Eagles and Saints just yet.

So yes, I’d advise you to take that bet…after all, it’s only Week 4 and we’re still 18 weeks away from the big game. A lot can happen between now and then and I’m only certain about ONE thing regarding NFL teams thus far:

The Miami Dolphins are historically bad…the worst team talent-wise that the NFL has seen in decades. Godspeed this season to their fans.

On to the picks where I’ve steadily made progress going from 9 to 10 to 11 wins the first three weeks. There may be one less game but I’m feeling confident about a 12 win week!

Week 4 Picks

Last Week: 11-5 Straight Up (SU),  8-8 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 30-17-1 SU, 24-24 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY PACKERS 27, Philadelphia Eagles 24 (ATS: Eagles +4.5)
As a Packers fan, this game really scares me. Sure, the Eagles are banged up…but this is the team I picked to win the Super Bowl for a reason. Green Bay’s defense has been incredible thus far but they also haven’t played an offense comparable to the Eagles’. Aaron Rodgers leads the Pack from behind in the final two minutes to send the Eagles to a surprising 1-3 record.

ATLANTA FALCONS 28, Tennessee Titans 17 (ATS: Falcons -3.5)
My best bet of the week. Atlanta is a different team at home…and I’m not big on Tennessee whatsoever. Matt Ryan and company cruise to an easy home win.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 30, Cleveland Browns 22 (ATS: Ravens -6.5)
I have no confidence whatsoever in the Browns right now. Freddie Kitchens’ playcalling is horrendous and the defense is banged up. The score will be closer than the game itself.

New England Patriots 26, BUFFALO BILLS 13 (ATS: Patriots -7.5)
The Bills being 3-0 is a great story…but it’s a mirage. New England will expose Buffalo to show they’re by far the best team in the division (yet again).

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 31, Detroit Lions 21 (ATS: Chiefs -6.5)
If you think I’m picking against Patrick Mahomes the way he’s playing right now, you’re crazy. I already made that mistake once in Week 1. And also – I think the Lions are a complete fraud at 2-0-1.

HOUSTON TEXANS 24, Carolina Panthers 17 (ATS: Texans -4.5)
The Kyle Allen story was fun last week…but winning two in a row on the road is a different animal. Texans advance to 3-1 and the AFC South already establishes itself as a clear two team race between Houston and…

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 26, Oakland Raiders 20 (ATS: Raiders +6.5)
The Indianapolis Colts. 
I think the Raiders keep it close on Sunday…that seems to be a trend with Indy this year…but let’s be honest, would they be better than 3-1 if Andrew Luck was playing as compared to Jacoby Brissett? Not sure they would be. And by the way, the Raiders’ schedule is blatantly unfair by the NFL if I haven’t said that before.

Los Angeles Chargers 34, Miami Dolphins 14 (ATS: Chargers -16.5)
I hate laying 16.5 points on the road. But the Dolphins are just that bad. No need to further analyze many more Miami games.

NEW YORK GIANTS 23, Washington Redskins 20 (ATS: Giants -2.5)
Will this be a matchup between two 1st round rookie QBs – Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins? Heading into the draft, I deemed Haskins the far superior player. I’m second guessing myself now as Jones has looked mighty impressive to start his pro career. Give me the home team, despite not having their best player (Saquon Barkley) in a close one.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 24, Seattle Seahawks 23 (ATS: Cardinals +4.5)
Here’s my upset of the week. It’s just a gut feeling that the Cardinals simply can’t start out their first three home games without a win. Is Seattle the better team? Sure…but as we’ve seen often in the early going…the better team doesn’t always win. Kliff and Kyler’s first win comes in a Sunday afternoon thriller!

LOS ANGELES RAMS 41, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (ATS Rams -9.5)
Points, points, and more points. Fire up all of your Rams in fantasy football this week. After watching the embarrassment that was the Bucs’ secondary last week, average QB Jared Goff should have a field day.

CHICAGO BEARS 20, Minnesota Vikings 16 (ATS: Bears -2.5)
U-G-L-Y game of the week part one. Two good defenses and two subpar offenses. Dalvin Cook has been the best RB in the league but I expect the Bears to stack him up and keep him well under 100 yards rushing. I just don’t believe Kirk Cousins will be clutch enough to win against a top-5 defense on the road.

DENVER BRONCOS 20, Jacksonville Jaguars 13 (ATS: Broncos -2.5)
U-G-L-Y game of the week part two. But Denver is a desperate team playing at home and you know I love to play that angle. So the Broncos win a low-scoring affair in the Mile High City.

Dallas Cowboys 31, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 24 (ATS: Cowboys -3.5)
I waffled back and forth on this one but it’s hard to argue with the way Dallas has been playing to open the season. I’m still not sold on Teddy Bridgewater as an NFL starter once again so I’ll take the road team in a fun Sunday night matchup.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 27, Cincinnati Bengals 20 (ATS: Steelers -4.5)
In the matchup of two 0-3 teams, give me the home team who had much higher expectations coming into the season. The desperation factor for Pittsburgh especially is off the charts!

Week 4 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (WIN, 2-1): Falcons -3.5
Underdog (LOSS, 1-2): Cardinals +4.5
Bet the Over (TIE, 0-2-1): Rams/Bucs Over 50
Bet the Under (LOSS, 1-2): Chiefs/Lions Under 54

Week 4 Fantasy Football Guidance
‘Boom’ Players
(15+ PPR fantasy points from a non top-10 player)
Last Week: 2-1
Overall: 2-7
QB: Daniel Jones, Giants
RB: Todd Gurley, Rams
WR: Kenny Golladay, Lions

‘Bust’ Players
(12 or less PPR fantasy points from a top-15 player)
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 4-5

QB: Josh Allen, Bills
RB: Derrick Henry, Titans
WR: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

To read previous entries of my blog, click here. Also make sure to follow me on Twitter @cohencurse1580.

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