Week 11 NFL Picks

It’s a common theme on The Daily Blender that I call for coaches to be fired when they aren’t cutting it. Hell, if you and I didn’t do our jobs well and we were overpaid, not to mention in the public eye, we would face major scrutiny as well!

We’re 9 / 10 games into the 2019 NFL season and we’ve already had one coach axed, Jay Gruden in Washington. Who’s next? I handicap the coaching tiers based on job security and predict who else will be on the unemployment line shortly after Christmas.

Iron-clad safe:
Andy Reid (Chiefs)
Bill Belichick (Patriots)
Bruce Arians (Buccaneers)
Doug Pederson (Eagles)
Frank Reich (Colts)
John Harbaugh (Ravens)
Jon Gruden (Raiders)
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals)
Kyle Shanahan (49ers)
Matt LaFleur (Packers)
Mike Tomlin (Steelers)
Pete Carroll (Seahawks)
Sean McDermott (Bills)
Sean McVay (Rams)
Sean Payton (Saints)

Probably not in jeopardy until at least 2021:
Brian Flores (Dolphins)
Matt Nagy (Bears)
Matt Patricia (Lions)
Mike Vrabel (Titans)
Vic Fangio (Broncos)
Zac Taylor (Bengals)

The seat is warmer than you’d think – watch out in 2020 if their teams fail to make the playoffs:
Bill O’Brien (Texans)
Mike Zimmer (Vikings)
Ron Rivera (Panthers)

On the HOT seat NOW:
Adam Gase (Jets) – On Wednesday, Jets owner Christopher Johnson said Gase’s job was safe. If so, poor NYJ fans. Gase is a fine coordinator but not head coach material. If he survives, he’s the immediate favorite to be the first coach fired in 2020.

Anthony Lynn (Chargers) – LA has been a massive disappointment coming off a surprising playoff run last season. Lynn’s decision making has been questionable and his QB might also be washed up. Though he probably deserves another season at the helm, I’m guessing he gets canned on Black Monday.

Bill Callahan (Redskins – interim) – He’ll be lucky to find an assistant coaching job in the NFL. Meanwhile the Redskins will likely hire another failure for a head coach.

Dan Quinn (Falcons) – His career arc has spiraled since the 2nd half of Super Bowl LI and I can’t see any way Falcons owner Arthur Blank retains him next season.

Doug Marrone (Jaguars) – Two years after taking Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game, Marrone continues to mire in mediocrity. I’d be surprised if he returns barring anything less than a 5-2 finish.

Freddie Kitchens (Browns) – Terrible head coach but if the Browns go 5-2 down the stretch as I predicted they would last week (they already got the first of the six wins), he’s back in 2020. Anything under .500 the rest of the way and I think Cleveland will be forced to make a change.

Jason Garrett (Cowboys) – Anything short of making the second round of the playoffs and Jerry Jones will almost be forced to let go of his long time puppet, Garrett. Translation = he’s gone.

Pat Shurmur (Giants) – The Giants won’t want to fire Shurmur after only two seasons but he’s clearly not the long term answer. Like his counterpart Adam Gase, solid coordinator, lousy head man. I predict Shurmur will be a QB Coach somewhere next season.

Another miserable week picking games…last year’s success has led to this year’s disaster!

Week 11 Picks

Last Week: 5-8 Straight Up (SU), 7-6 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 86-61-1 SU, 75-73 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

CLEVELAND BROWNS 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 20 (ATS: Browns -2.5)
Last week I predicted the Browns late-season renaissance…and it continues against a hot Steelers team in the Dawg Pound. If Pittsburgh can steal this one though, they very well might have legitimate AFC Wild Card hopes.

CAROLINA PANTHERS 30, Atlanta Falcons 17 (ATS: Panthers -5.5)
Great bounce back chance for Carolina / letdown for Atlanta. The Panthers defense is key…force Matt Ryan into multiple mistakes and this result shouldn’t be in doubt.

Dallas Cowboys 27, DETROIT LIONS 20 (ATS: Cowboys -3.5)
I don’t know what to make of either of these teams right now. The Cowboys are underachievers and the Lions’ identity is gone when Matthew Stafford isn’t in there. I predict, as of the time of this writing, that he’s out again and Dallas covers on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 23 (ATS: Jaguars +2.5)
Here’s my upset of the week. The Colts are floundering as I don’t care if they were missing their starting QB or not, there’s no justification in losing at home to the stinkin’ Dolphins! Nick Foles is back and leads his new team to a last second victory to pretty much derail what was left of the Colts’ AFC South title hopes.

Buffalo Bills 24, MIAMI DOLPHINS 16 (ATS: Bills -5.5)
I was wrong about Miami – they’ve been a heck of a lot better lately than I ever could’ve expected and I credit first year head coach Brian Flores with keeping them afloat. With that said, the Bills need this game for playoff purposes and they’ll get it without too much trouble.

BALTIMORE RAVENS 31, Houston Texans 23 (ATS: Ravens -4.5)
In what should be an awesome matchup of QBs, I trust Baltimore’s D to get more stops than Houston’s, especially without JJ Watt. This one very well might be the game of the week if it lives up to the hype. If Lamar Jackson keeps winning, there’s a decent chance he can get very very close to Russell Wilson in the MVP voting in the minds of most voters.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 26, Denver Broncos 10 (ATS: Vikings -10.5)
Broncos QB Brandon Allen has no chance against the aggressive Vikings D as Minnesota continues to march towards an NFC playoff spot.

New Orleans Saints 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 (ATS: Saints -5.5)
Something about this game gives me a bad feeling towards the Bucs. Maybe it’s that the Saints are angry and I don’t trust Jameis Winston against New Orleans’ aggressive defense? Either way, I’m rolling with Sean Payton’s team laying almost a TD on the road.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS 20, New York Jets 13 (ATS: Redskins -1.5)
This week’s version of ‘The Toilet Bowl’. If Dwayne Haskins can’t win this one against the pathetic Jets, Washington’s rookie QB may not win another game this season. Bad logic but am I wrong?

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 24, Arizona Cardinals 13 (ATS: Cardinals +13.5)
The last matchup was high-scoring (in the 50s) so this one is essentially guaranteed to be the opposite. Look for the 49ers to run it down the Cardinals’ throats to keep Kyler Murray off the field. San Francisco wins but once again doesn’t cover.

OAKLAND RAIDERS 30, Cincinnati Bengals 13 (ATS: Raiders -10.5)
The Bengals are horrific but I still don’t see them going winless. Oakland is making a legitimate playoff push and has a soft schedule coming up. This win is about as easy as it will get for them, though. Last week I said that Bengals rookie Ryan Finley might have been a bridge option for them at QB…well, that doesn’t appear to be the case.

New England Patriots 33, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 26 (ATS: Patriots -3.5)
I can’t wait to watch this one! A rematch of Super Bowl LII and though (MVP) Nick Foles is gone, this should be an entertaining affair with Carson Wentz taking on the GOAT Tom Brady. Although I picked Philly as my preseason Super Bowl LIV champs, I can’t see the Pats losing two in-a-row…so I’ll take them in a fun, high-scoring thriller.

LOS ANGELES RAMS 23, Chicago Bears 20 (ATS: Bears +6.5)
Remember when the Bears nearly skunked the potent Rams offense last season, 15-6? While it won’t be low-scoring this time, I have a feeling that this game stays closer than most expect. Last week I had the sneaky suspicion about the Seahawks who won outright in San Francisco…this week it’s Chicago who keeps it very close.

Kansas City Chiefs 34, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 24 (in Mexico City) (ATS: Chiefs -3.5)
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with the Chiefs’ offense but like last year, the defense still stinks (most of the time)! In what should be a Monday Night in Mexico shootout, Patrick Mahomes once again throws for 400+ yards in a victory that will relieve KC’s fanbase for the time being.

Week 11 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (WIN, 5-5): Redskins -1.5 vs. Jets
Underdog (WIN, 6-4): Bears +6.5 vs. Rams
Bet the Over (LOSS 3-6-1): Chiefs / Chargers Over 52
Bet the Under (WIN, 4-6): Saints / Buccaneers Under 50

Week 11 Fantasy Football Guidance
‘Boom’ Players
(15+ PPR fantasy points from a non top-10 player)
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 9-21
QB: Kyle Allen (Panthers)
RB: Devin Singletary (Bills)
WR: D.J. Moore (Panthers)

‘Bust’ Players
(12 or less PPR fantasy points from a top-15 player)
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 14-16
QB: Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
RB: Brian Hill (Falcons)
WR: D.J. Chark (Jaguars)

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