Recapping the CFB ‘Expert’ Picks + Week 15 NFL Picks

It’s most certainly depressing to be writing a weekly football column and NOT making college football picks for the weekend. 

But let’s be honest – it hasn’t been a good football season for me by any stretch of the imagination. UofA stunk, my NFL picks have been horrible, my fantasy football teams have underachieved and overall I’m more ready than usual for the offseason.

I do love bowl season, however, and next week we’ll do one last edition of the ‘expert’ picks for 2019.

justin-fields-joe-burrow-trevor-lawrence

Quick thoughts on last weekend and the bowls:

-I never saw LSU’s rout of Georgia coming. The Tigers were far and away better and after Ohio State struggled for 2.5 quarters with Wisconsin, it only made sense to drop them to #2 and jump up LSU.

-I don’t think Oklahoma is anything special…and I’d be surprised if they stayed within 2 TDs of LSU.

-The Fiesta Bowl between Ohio State and Clemson might be the best football game talent-wise that I’ve ever been to…and I’ve already attended three title games in person. I really don’t know how to pick either…I’m leaning towards Clemson because Dabo Swinney is such a good coach. But I’m also a big fan of Ryan Day’s…and it’s true that he’s undefeated as OSU’s head coach.

-With that said about LSU, the winner of the Fiesta Bowl will win the National Championship. And convincingly…in a surprising rout.

-Another team I never predicted would get boat raced: Utah. Watching Oregon dismantle them from start to finish was stunning. I have no idea if the Utes will show up for the Alamo Bowl vs. underachieving Texas or just mail it in.

-I don’t care who plays or who doesn’t for Alabama…Saban vs. Harbaugh in the Citrus Bowl is must-watch TV.

Below I’ll recap the ‘experts’ weekly & season picks + review my preseason Pac-12 predictions.

I was able to narrowly hold on to the season straight up picks record over Bear Down Steve by picking them at a 70% clip. An improvement over my 67% picks last year so I’ll take it…but Wesley polished all of us against the spread. Congrats to him also on the second undefeated week of picks (Steve had one earlier in the season).

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Guest Picker Records:
Week 9: Jason “Chief” Carter: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
Week 10: JROD: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
Week 11: Boogie: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS
Week 12: Big George: 8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS
Week 13: The Berg: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS
Week 14:
Adam Lester: 10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS
Week 15: Papa Mike: 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS

After Papa Mike’s outstanding Week 15 performance, the guest pickers finished 52-28 straight up and 39-41 against the spread during the back half of the season.  Looking forward to a full season of guest pickers in 2020. Take notes guest pickers, Papa Mike might be the one to beat again next season!

In the meantime, here’s one more score prediction from me for the final game of the CFB regular season:
Navy 31, Army 23 (ATS: Army +10.5)

Season Picks Review (you can take a look at our predictions here):

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I want to quickly apologize to you, JB – I mocked you for not picking Alabama in the CFB Playoff in August. Very good call there!

Reviewing my Pac-12 Predictions from August:

The Good:
-I correctly predicted Utah and Oregon to win their divisions and play in the conference championship game (unfortunately I didn’t get the correct outcome from the game though).

-In my preseason projection of picking every game for each team in the conference, I got 58 of 90 correct (64%). Not too shabby for a shot in the dark.

The Bad:
-I had 2 teams with the correct overall record (Oregon, Washington State) and 3 teams with the correct conference record (Oregon, ASU, UCLA). Last year I also had 2 teams with the correct overall record but 5 teams with the right conference record.

-I only got one bowl placement correct…USC in the Holiday Bowl. Ouch.



Week 15 NFL Picks

It’s just been one of those years for me when it comes to the NFL. Last year at this time I had 16 more wins than I do now straight up. It’s flat out embarrassing when it comes to picks, best bets, and fantasy advice! Hopefully 2020 will bring better luck because 2019 has been an utter disaster!

Last Week: 9-7 Straight Up (SU), 6-10 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 122-84-1 SU, 102-106 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

BALTIMORE RAVENS 23, New York Jets 10 (ATS: Jets +14.5)
Seattle Seahawks 30, CAROLINA PANTHERS 20 (ATS: Seahawks -6.5)
New England Patriots 30, CINCINNATI BENGALS 10 (ATS: Patriots -9.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27, DETROIT LIONS 24 (ATS: Lions +3.5)
GREEN BAY PACKERS 26, Chicago Bears 20 (ATS: Packers -4.5)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 31, Denver Broncos 23 (ATS: Broncos +10.5)
NEW YORK GIANTS 24, Miami Dolphins 22 (ATS: Dolphins +3.5)
TENNESSEE TITANS 30, Houston Texans 23 (ATS: Titans -3.5)
Philadelphia Eagles 23, WASHINGTON REDSKINS 17 (ATS: Eagles -4.5)
Cleveland Browns 27, ARIZONA CARDINALS 22 (ATS: Browns -2.5)
OAKLAND RAIDERS 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (ATS: Raiders -6.5)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 23, Minnesota Vikings 17 (ATS: Chargers +2.5)
DALLAS COWBOYS 26, Los Angeles Rams 24 (ATS: Cowboys +0.5)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 38, Atlanta Falcons 14 (ATS: 49ers -10.5)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 17, Buffalo Bills 13 (ATS: Steelers -2.5)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34, Indianapolis Colts 24 (ATS: Saints -9.5)

Week 15 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (LOSS, 5-9): Browns -2.5 vs. Cardinals
Underdog (LOSS, 7-7): Chargers +2.5 vs. Vikings
Bet the Over (WIN 5-8-1): Bears / Packers Over 41
Bet the Under (WIN, 6-8): Ravens / Jets Under 44.5

Week 15 Fantasy Football Guidance
‘Boom’ Players
(15+ PPR fantasy points from a non top-10 player)
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 14-28
QB: Baker Mayfield (Browns)
RB: Joe Mixon (Bengals)
WR: Odell Beckham, Jr. (Browns)

‘Bust’ Players
(12 or less PPR fantasy points from a top-15 player)
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 20-22

QB: Tom Brady (Patriots)
RB: Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
WR: Stefon Diggs (Vikings)

 

To read previous entries of my blog, click here. Also make sure to follow me on Twitter @cohencurse1580

 

One thought on “Recapping the CFB ‘Expert’ Picks + Week 15 NFL Picks

  1. As an Oklahoma & LSU Fan, I will sit back and watch a good College Football game. I’m not picking or rooting for either team in that game. I’m hoping Eric is wrong and the game goes down to the last minute and then won on the last play. Another prediction of his that I think will be wrong is that “The winner of the Fiesta Bowl will win the National Championship…” Not so Fast Eric. Both Peach Bowl Teams have enough talent to win the Championship, that is, if that talent plays well together that day.
    Good job on the Preseason Pac-12 predictions, 64% is pretty good.
    One last point from me is on your week 15 Fantasy Football Boom Players. I see what you did picking Mayfield & Odell Beckham Jr. to have good games because they are playing the Cardinals. Don’t think I didn’t see your poke at the Cardinals.
    Good job and congrats to all the Experts on their SU picks; all of you had a really good percentage of correct picks.

    Like

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