Last week in the ‘Quick Thoughts’ section, I said this verbatim:
“I like to go down the schedule and put together my projected scores without looking at the game lines. This week, I took WAY too many favorites ATS (except for on Monday night oddly). Something tells me I’ll go either 10-4 or 4-10.”
And I went 4-10…just like clockwork.
Picking games this year feels so much harder. Maybe the lack of a preseason…or maybe the glut of injuries early on. Either way, I flat out stink.
Who would’ve expected Green Bay to jump out to a 10-0 lead in Tampa before giving up 38 unanswered points?
Or Minnesota, coming off three solid efforts getting boat raced at home by the winless Falcons?
Or New England, a sizable home favorite scoring only one touchdown in an ugly loss to Denver?
And then there was Dallas, who yes, lost QB Dak Prescott last week to a season-ending injury. But only one touchdown? Against the Cardinals? At home…on Monday Night Football? Really?
Clearly I don’t have a beat on this season’s picks…but hey, I’ll keep trying every week with the hope that I can get back to .500 before December. Wishful thinking likely…so fade these picks as you wish…
Week 7 Picks
Last Week: 7-7 Straight Up (SU), 4-10 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 56-34-1 SU, 39-52 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 23, New York Giants 17 (ATS: Eagles -3.5)
Buffalo Bills 30, NEW YORK JETS 10 (ATS: Bills -12.5)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 30, Carolina Panthers 24 (ATS: Panthers +7.5)
CINCINNATI BENGALS 27, Cleveland Browns 21 (ATS: Bengals +3.5)
Dallas Cowboys 27, WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM 24 (ATS: Cowboys -2.5)
ATLANTA FALCONS 30, Detroit Lions 26 (ATS: Falcons -2.5)
Green Bay Packers 33, HOUSTON TEXANS 27 (ATS: Packers -3.5)
TENNESSEE TITANS 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 24 (ATS: Titans +1.5)
Seattle Seahawks 31, ARIZONA CARDINALS 28 (ATS: Cardinals +3.5)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (ATS: Jaguars +7.5)
Kansas City Chiefs 28, DENVER BRONCOS 16 (ATS: Chiefs -9.5)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 24, San Francisco 49ers 17 (ATS: Patriots -2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 23 (ATS: Buccaneers -2.5)
LOS ANGELES RAMS 27, Chicago Bears 17 (ATS: Rams -5.5)
5 Quick Thoughts on Week 7
1. I love playing home underdogs of more than 10 points so the Jets seemed like a logical ATS pick this week. And then I remembered they were the Jets and how awful they are with Adam Gase at the helm. No thanks. Bills minus the points for me.
2. Baker Mayfield was horrendous in Pittsburgh last week…and considering Joe Burrow played fantastic when these two teams met on a Thursday night in Week 2, give me this year’s #1 overall pick and the 3.5 points he’s getting at home against a Nick Chubb-less Browns team. This one feels like a gift from the oddsmakers.
3. In the game of the week between two undefeated teams, I’m extremely torn as to which direction to go. The Steelers lost LB Devin Bush, who’s a key element of their top notch defense, while Tennessee left tackle, Taylor Lewan (from my high school, Chaparral) also is out for the season, both with torn-ACLs. In toss-up games like this, go with the home team who also has the best offensive player on the field, running back Derrick Henry.
4. Two teams I love in bounce back spots this week: the Patriots and Rams. Both teams fell flat in Week 6…but should be good enough to avoid back-to-back losses against teams who are traveling a good distance across country (or whatever Chicago to LA is considered).
5. Last week in this column, I proclaimed the Packers and Seahawks as the two best teams in the NFC. Seattle had a bye while Green Bay got walloped in Tampa Bay. Now both teams face tricky road tests in Week 7. I’m picking both to win this week…but of the two, I’d put Seattle, despite being fully rested, more so on upset alert against the suddenly resurgent Cardinals.
Week 7 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (WIN, 4-2): Patriots -2.5 vs. 49ers
Underdog (LOSS, 3-3): Bengals +3.5 vs. Browns
Bet the Over (LOSS 3-3): Packers / Texans Over 56.5
Bet the Under (WIN, 4-2): Eagles / Giants Under 43.5