Week 10 NFL Picks
Last Week: 10-4 Straight Up (SU), 7-7 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 82-50-1 SU, 59-74 ATS
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)
TENNESSEE TITANS 27, Indianapolis Colts 20 (ATS: Titans -2.5)
CLEVELAND BROWNS 27, Houston Texans 22 (ATS: Browns -3.5)
GREEN BAY PACKERS 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 20 (ATS: Jaguars +13.5)
Philadelphia Eagles 27, NEW YORK GIANTS 24 (ATS: Giants +3.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30, CAROLINA PANTHERS 20 (ATS: Bucs -4.5)
DETROIT LIONS 26, Washington Football Team 21 (ATS: Lions -3.5)
ARIZONA CARDINALS 31, Buffalo Bills 27 (ATS: Cardinals -1.5)
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 27, Denver Broncos 23 (ATS: Broncos +5.5)
MIAMI DOLPHINS 24, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (ATS: Dolphins -2.5)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 26, Cincinnati Bengals 20 (ATS: Bengals +7.5)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34, San Francisco 49ers 28 (ATS: 49ers +9.5)
LOS ANGELES RAMS 29, Seattle Seahawks 26 (ATS: Rams -1.5)
Baltimore Ravens 27, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 13 (ATS: Ravens -7.5)
CHICAGO BEARS 19, Minnesota Vikings 16 (ATS: Bears +2.5)
5 Quick Thoughts on Week 10
1. The Bucs have to bounce back in Carolina after what I consider the worst game from a Super Bowl contender that we’ll see this year…BY FAR. Carolina has lost four in a row, likely won’t have their best player, Christian McCaffrey once again, and though they’re at home, I just don’t see Tampa not redeeming themselves in a big way. I’ll lay the 6.5 all day, every day!
2. My best bet of the week: the Arizona Cardinals. Let’s call it a non-Baltimore Ravens ‘Bet Your House Play’. Coming off a tough home loss, I believe this team is too good to not win both home games against AFC East teams. Don’t get me wrong, Buffalo will once again be in the playoffs…but this game is as close to a must win for Arizona as it gets. Kyler Murray goes bonkers yet again leading AZ to a close but satisfying victory.
3. That Dolphins-Chargers line is super fishy. Miami is on a roll, Tua should flashes of brilliance last week, and their defense has been pretty darn good all things considered lately…and yet they’re only a 2.5 point favorite over a 2-6 team. I’ll take Miami tepidly but this line is also screaming towards a road upset.
4. When the 49ers and Saints meet, it’s usually a score-fest. Last year’s 48-46 SF win was one of the rare games where both teams scored more themselves than the predicted combined over / under. Dating back to 2010, the over is 6-1 when these two play. I know the 49ers are missing a bunch of their regulars but garbage time points should be aplenty here. Might be a fine parlay candidate with the Cardinals in Sunday’s late window!?
5. I really can’t give you a justifiable reason why I’m picking the Bears over a Minnesota team that’s won two division games in a row on Monday night. Just feels like a game Chicago will win that it doesn’t deserve to. The home ‘dog has also covered twice in the last two weeks on MNF (for whatever that’s worth).
Week 10 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (LOSS, 4-5): Cardinals -1.5 vs. Bills
Underdog (WIN, 6-3): Bears +2.5 vs. Vikings
Bet the Over (WIN 4-5): 49ers / Saints Over 50
Bet the Under (LOSS, 5-4): Texans / Browns Under 52
What a disaster in the Pick 5 last week…the first and hopefully 0-fer of the season! Pathetic!
EC’s Week 10 Pick 5 Selections:
Last Week: 0-5
West Virginia -3 vs. TCU
San Diego State -11 vs. Hawaii
Titans -1.5 vs. Colts
Cardinals -1.5 vs. Bills
Bucs -4.5 vs. Panthers