Super Bowl LV Prediction + WMPO Top Picks

I can’t believe the Bucs beat the Packers almost two weeks ago. Then again, if you’re a loyal reader of this column, you should know by now that when I proclaim a pick as ‘Bet Your House’ on it, it’s probably going to be a loser.

So after 54 tries, a team finally gets to play in its home stadium in the Super Bowl. But of course the year that finally happens, there is a worldwide pandemic and the stadium will be filled with only 25,000 live people and 30,000 cut-outs.

Apparently I was wrong about Tom Brady last year when I said two things:

  1. He was washed up and he might as well retire.
  2. He would only win with Bill Belichick.

The guy is now starting his TENTH Super Bowl…just an insane stat that quite possibly, only Patrick Mahomes may ever make a run at during our lifetimes.

I honestly don’t feel very comfortable making an actual prediction on this game so tread lightly with the score prediction you see below. I know KC hammered the Bucs in the first quarter three months ago though Tampa rallied and backdoor covered the 3.5 in a Chiefs 27-24 victory. I believe that Brady’s team has improved since then and the Chiefs have weakened.

I see the Bucs’ defense bracketing Tyreek Hill opening up the middle of the field for Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs win, he’s the second most likely player in my opinion to win the MVP award behind Mahomes of course. The key for Tampa will be holding Kansas City to field goals in the red zone which I think is quite possible this time around.

On offense, look for Brady to dink and dunk his way down the field. Considering Chris Godwin is Tampa’s best receiver over the middle, I believe he’ll exceed 10 targets and for the second straight game top 100 yards receiving. Tampa Bay is going to score 24+, I’m fairly confident in that prediction…as they’ve done so all but twice in 2020-21 by my count.

My biggest play is on the under 56.5 in Super Bowl LV. In the last seven Super Bowls with totals set at 50+ (since 2001), the under is 6-1 only having lost when New England made the stunning comeback down 28-3 and rallied to beat Atlanta in the Super Bowl in 2017.

Below you’ll see my score prediction and a brief summary of how I expect the game to play out:

SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

Last Week: 1-1 Straight Up (SU), 1-1 Against the Spread (ATS), 1-1 Over/Under (OU)
Playoffs: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 OU

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 28, Kansas City Chiefs 26
(ATS: Bucs +3, Under 56.5)

How it starts: Tampa Bay leads from the outset unlike the last time these two teams met on November 29th. It’s a low-scoring first half as the Bucs generate plenty of pressure on Mahomes and force him into more incompletions and throw aways than we’re used to. The game tightens up in the 3rd before Tampa scores its 4th TD of the day to give them a comfortable advantage midway through the 4th quarter.

How it ends: With under two minutes left, trailing by 8, Patrick Mahomes calmly leads Kansas City on a 75 yard drive to cut the deficit to two. In what might go down as one of the most thrilling defensive plays in Super Bowl history, Bucs linebacker Devin White narrowly breaks up a pass intended for Kelce to preserve TB’s second Super Bowl championship.

Three choices for MVP:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC): 10-1
Chris Godwin (WR, TB): 30-1
Devin White (LB, TB): 30-1 – my top selection if TB wins.

Super Bowl Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (LOSS, 10-10): N/A
Underdog (LOSS, 11-9): Bucs +3
Bet the Over (WIN, 8-12): N/A
Bet the Under (LOSS, 10-9-1): Under 56.5


With it being Super Bowl weekend, that usually means it’s the craziest sports week of the year in the Phoenix-area with the Waste Management Phoenix Open in town for its annual week-long party. The problem is, with COVID, that party is virtually non-existent in 2021. Nonetheless I’ve given out the winner of this tournament two years in a row in this column so time to go for the hat trick!

Here are three players I’m favoring this week:

Justin Thomas (+800)
Xander Schauffele (+1000)
Daniel Berger (+1400)

Sure, those are chalky…but I’m extra confident that I have the winner once again!

To read previous entries of my blog, click here. Also make sure to follow me on Twitter @CohensCornerAZ.

2 thoughts on “Super Bowl LV Prediction + WMPO Top Picks

  1. Oh man, I’ve been leaning towards Tampa Bay winning this game also. Since you picked them, I better go back and look at everything again. I totally agree that it will depend on which Tampa Bay Defense shows up for the game. If they are playing at the top of their game, Bucs win. I like your Summary of how the game will play out, very exciting 4th quarter. My thought process is that:
    1. Offenses are pretty much equally dangerous.
    2. Defenses again are pretty much equally dangerous.
    3. Mahomes, has a slight Advantage with the long ball, can throw it more often.
    4. Brady has the experience to figure out how to get past the KC D, over Mahomes and the Bucs D.
    5. Mahomes will cave under the pressure and make a few, just a few mistakes along the way.
    6. Tampa Bay wins by 3 or more.

    I like Patrick Mahomes and think it’s great for football if he becomes the next TB; however, he does 1 thing that I don’t like (I know you do) and should be called out on it. He runs to the sideline and as the defensive player lets up (so he doesn’t get the penalty), Mahomes darts down the field for more yardage and even a touchdown to win a game on 1 occasion. I don’t want him to get hurt but I do want him to get popped really good, when he does this. He’s taking advantage of the NFL rules to protect the QB and that is a dangerous move; some defensive player will eventually risk the penalty and give him what he wants, to be knocked out of bounds. Sorry but I can rant about this all day, just saw him do it in the last game they played. To bad for him other defensive players were there and Mahomes had to immediately drop like a rock. Man I really hate this chicken S**t move. NOW I’M FIRED UP AND WANT THE BUCS TO WIN BY 17 OR MORE.

    Like

    1. Great points, Papa Mike – especially about Mahomes and his style of running near the sideline. If he keeps it up, he deserves to get walloped! Should be a fun game on Sunday!

      Like

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