DON’T OVERREACT TO WEEK 1! I say it every year like clockwork…but unfortunately, considering there was no 2020 preseason, separating truths from falsehoods proves tougher.
No, the Jaguars will not have a better season than the Colts. Ditto with the Washington Football Team and the Eagles despite their Week 1 matchups.
No, Minnesota’s defense won’t give up 40+ points per game…or even 30+ for that matter.
And no, Tom Brady isn’t completely washed up…but that one I feel less certain about than the others
In the meantime, here are 5 (semi-)overreactions that I’m buying into after Week 1:
1. The Cardinals are legitimate contenders to win the NFC West.
2. Pittsburgh’s defense is good enough to take them far in the AFC Playoffs.
3. Green Bay DOES have enough offensive weapons to make a run again this season.
4. Bet the overs in all games featuring the Falcons and Raiders…you’ll turn a profit this season almost guaranteed.
5. Vic Fangio is a fine defensive coordinator has no idea how to run a game as a head coach…letting Denver save three timeouts on Monday night while Tennessee methodically took off time on their final drive was moronic. His incompetence in game management may hold the Broncos back.
It was a rough Week 1 for me pick-wise…going 7-9 across the board. Unfortunately my 2019 form held for the first week of 2020…time to get it going and give out some winning picks (for once)!
Week 2 Picks
Last Week: 7-9 Straight Up (SU), 7-9 Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall: 7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS
Preseason Picks Matrix – Last Week: 7-9, Overall: 7-9
(Picks against the spread in parentheses; HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)
CLEVELAND BROWNS 24, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (ATS: Browns -5.5)
GREEN BAY PACKERS 26, Detroit Lions 23 (ATS: Lions +6.5)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 30, Carolina Panthers 17 (ATS: Buccaneers -9.5)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 23, Los Angeles Rams 20 (ATS: Eagles Pick’em)
DALLAS COWBOYS 37, Atlanta Falcons 27 (ATS: Cowboys -4.5)
Minnesota Vikings 24, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 22 (ATS: Vikings +3.5)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 23, Denver Broncos 10 (ATS: Steelers -6.5)
CHICAGO BEARS 20, New York Giants 17 (ATS: Giants +5.5)
Buffalo Bills 23, MIAMI DOLPHINS 21 (ATS: Dolphins +5.5)
TENNESSEE TITANS 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 14 (ATS: Titans -9.5)
San Francisco 49ers 27, NEW YORK JETS 10 (ATS: 49ers -6.5)
ARIZONA CARDINALS 27, Washington Football Team 16 (ATS: Cardinals -6.5)
Kansas City Chiefs 27, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 20 (ATS: Chargers +8.5)
Baltimore Ravens 30, HOUSTON TEXANS 20 (ATS: Ravens -6.5)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 26, New England Patriots 19 (ATS: Seahawks -4.5)
New Orleans Saints 31, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 23 (ATS: Saints -5.5)
5 Quick Thoughts on Week 2
1. Detroit played Green Bay extremely tough at Lambeau Field in 2019 and truly got hosed by the officials out of a win. Look for the Lions to cover in what should be another tight affair.
2. It’s stunning to me that either the Colts or Vikings, two of my projected division winners, will be 0-2 after their matchup on Sunday. Minnesota needs this game more though with a good Tennessee team coming to Minneapolis next week (Indianapolis plays the Jets which will be a cake walk).
3. I don’t usually like to lay significant points for road teams traveling across the country but the 49ers should be on fire following a loss and the Jets are the worst team in the league. Lay the 6.5 with confidence.
4. The Chargers’ defense is good enough to slow Patrick Mahomes down slightly. 8.5 points is a lot to give up coming home, of a gutty win, in a new stadium.
5. Talk about starting your season with a gauntlet…the Texans opened with a road trip to Kansas City followed by a home date with the Ravens. Though they’ll likely be 0-2, the schedule can’t and won’t get any harder for Houston so no need to give up on them as a playoff contender just yet.
Week 2 Betting Locks
(Last Week’s Result, Season Record in Parentheses)
Favorite (LOSS, 0-1): 49ers -6.5 at Jets
Underdog (WIN, 1-0): Vikings +3.5 at Colts
Bet the Over (WIN, 1-0): Cowboys / Falcons Over 52.5
Bet the Under (WIN, 1-0): Steelers / Broncos Under 41.5